What is FOG (Facts, Opinions, and Guesses)?

FOG, short for Facts, Opinions, and Guesses, has been a concept circulating for some time, although it only caught my attention in recent years. Personally, I advocate for vigilance against our tendency to make assumptions, as they can often lead to errors.

However, maintaining a critical thinking mindset at all times can be taxing. Unfortunately, I’ve observed numerous instances in various professional settings where individuals propose solutions without grounding them in factual evidence.

My experience integrating FOG into my daily work routine

In light of this, I view FOG as a valuable management tool. During Gemba walks and discussions with operators regarding manufacturing issues, I consciously apply the FOG framework.

This involves carefully parsing through the information gathered, distinguishing between opinions and guesses, and extracting the factual elements.

These facts serve as the foundation for further analysis, often utilizing methodologies like the 5 Whys or Ishikawa diagrams to uncover the root cause of issues.

Moreover, I find that FOG is instrumental in managing people effectively. By understanding the nuances of facts, opinions, and guesses, I can ask targeted questions that lead to meaningful solutions for individuals’ work-related challenges. This approach fosters collaboration and empowers teams to work together towards shared goals.

Here’s a great video I found on YouTube that explains how you can tell the difference between Facts & Opinions:

How do you uncover the facts in any situation?

In engineering, uncovering the truth behind an issue often means cutting through FOG—Facts, Opinions, and Guesses. While opinions and guesses aren’t facts, they can still be valuable starting points.

Why Opinions Matter (at First)

When you’re starting from scratch:

• Opinions from frontline workers can point you toward potential causes.
• Collecting multiple opinions allows you to identify recurring patterns and trends.
• These insights help guide initial observations and data collection.

Moving from Opinions to Facts

Once you’ve gathered enough perspectives, it’s time to validate them:

Tick Sheets & Monitoring: Create checklists to track observations and verify assumptions.

Ask Questions: Tools like SMED (Single-Minute Exchange of Die), VSM (Value Stream Mapping), 5Y Analysis, and the Ishikawa (Fishbone) Diagram all rely on structured questioning.

Frontline Engagement: Speak with multiple team members to build a clearer picture.

The End Goal?

• Identify significant factors causing the issue.
• Use reliable data collection and analysis methods to understand the root cause.
• Design a solution backed by facts, not assumptions.

Remember: Every great investigation begins with the right questions. Keep digging, keep questioning, and let the facts guide your decisions.

Resources

Here’s a website I use to improve my own thinking, its also a great place to develop your own thinking so that you focus on the facts – Clearer Thinking

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